User:TiagoLubiana/R0

This is my documentation of the process of adding more information about basic reproduction numbers of diseases/pathogens on Wikidata.

I will start by adding the information from this Wikipedia pageː en:Basic_reproduction_number

First case study: measles

Main items

Wikidata item: measles (Q79793)

Wikipedia reference: The basic reproduction number (R0) of measles: a systematic review (Q38652912) (Daniel Mietchen updated manually this item about a month ago)

Notes

Wikipedia states that the R0 is 12–18, while the article states that "R0 estimates vary more than the often cited range of 12–18. "

The reference is a systematic review of different sources.

There is no way of currently adding ranges to Wikidata, as far as I am aware of.

I will set a mock-up confidence interval taking the mean of 12 and 18 (15) with +- 3.

Besides using stated in (P248) for the reference, I used object stated in reference as (P5997) to clarify exactly how R0 was reported there.

Second case study: SARS

Main items

Disease: severe acute respiratory syndrome (Q103177)

Reference: Different epidemic curves for severe acute respiratory syndrome reveal similar impacts of control measures (Q33981191)

Notes

Wikipedia states that the R0 is 2-5. This is not stated anywhere in the original paper.

Their estimate of effective R0 before containment measures was "R = 3.6, 95 percent CI: 3.1, 4.2". After measures were taken, R0 decreased to "R = 0.7, 95 percent CI: 0.7, 0.8".

I will add an R0 of 3.6 +- 0.6, as we are usually interested in R0 in normal situations.

Third case studyː MERS

Main items

Disease: Middle East respiratory syndrome (Q16654806)

Reference: The role of superspreading in Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) transmission (Q39149979)

Notes

Wikipedia statement of 0.3 - 0.8 comes from a graph of R0 by dispersion (k). The authors explictly say "Our estimate for R0 was 0.47 (95% CI: 0.29–0.80)."

I will add it to Wikidata as 0.47 +- 0.25 as this is what is possible now and does not compromise too much. Wikidata does not support non-normal CIs.

Fourth case studyː Influenza H1N1 2009 strain

Main items

Disease: Not on Wikidata

Virus: pandemic H1N1/09 virus (Q1031900)

Reference: The role of superspreading in Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) transmission (Q39149979)

Notes

Wikipedia states a R0 of 1.4–1.6. The study referenced refers to this number as "The R0 for novel influenza A (H1N1) has recently been estimated to be between 1.4 and 1.6."

The paper cites 'By fitting an SIR model to initial outbreak data from La Gloria in Mexico Fraser et al. estimated the R0 for this novel strain to be between 1.4 to 1.6 [39]". Paper 39 was published in Science: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3735127/.

I will add it as 1.5 +- 0.1 to the virus, because there is no item for the 2009 H1N1 flu.

I note that an item for the disease might be desirable. However, does every strain of a pathogen deservers an item? That is hard.

Fifth case study: COVID-19

Main items

Disease: COVID-19 (Q84263196)

Reference: High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (Q89991818)

Notes

Wikipedia currently states a R0 of 3.8–8.9. The article says "assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9)".

Again, the CI is not normal, and that is currently not representable on Wikidata. I will enter it as 5.7 +- 2.5 (arbitrarily compromising the accuracy).